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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

New Jersey Devils 5, Atlanta Thrashers 4

Away

New Jersey Devils

5

Final

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 89% of the time.

ATL winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD1243919542
ATL3601218426

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:15ATLRon HainseyAssists: Christoph Schubert, Pavel Kubina · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:55NJDRob NiedermayerAssists: Jay Pandolfo, Mike Mottau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 14:30ATLNik AntropovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Boris Valabik · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
  4. P1 17:14ATLPavel KubinaAssists: Toby Enstrom, Todd White · Slap, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P2 2:46NJDBrian RolstonAssists: Colin White · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–3
  6. P2 6:12NJDDean McAmmondAssists: Zach Parise, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
  7. P2 10:04NJDRod PelleyAssists: Vladimir Zharkov · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
  8. P3 11:45NJDDean McAmmondGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Zach Parise · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–3
  9. P3 16:04ATLVyacheslav KozlovPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Nik Antropov · Slap, 0.05 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 4:51ATLRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
  2. P2 5:21ATLChristoph Schubert: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 16:09NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Slashing2 min
  4. P3 15:46NJDPatrik Elias: High sticking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Elias
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDATL
42Shots on goal26
3.6Expected goals1.2
59Shot attempts51
32Faceoffs won30
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
11Hits21
14Blocked shots9
3Giveaways8
15Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 1.2 xGNJD 3.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #150 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.78 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 89% of the time.

ATL winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).