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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Colorado Avalanche 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ0122909230
COL41301018531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 0:21COLChris StewartAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Craig Anderson · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 3:22COLWojtek WolskiAssists: John-Michael Liles, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
  3. P1 4:15COLWojtek WolskiPPGWGAssists: Milan Hejduk, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–3
  4. P1 8:02COLJohn-Michael LilesPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.58 xG0–4
  5. P2 3:29CBJR.J. UmbergerPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kristian Huselius · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–4
  6. P2 13:24CBJJason ChimeraPPAssists: Freddy Modin, Antoine Vermette · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–4
  7. P3 16:32COLMilan HejdukAssists: Matt Duchene, Brett Clark · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:57CBJMike Commodore: Holding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:43CBJKris Russell: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:43CBJRaffi Torres: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 2:10COLBrett Clark: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 6:49COLMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 8:55CBJFreddy Modin: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P2 11:28COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:34CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJCOL
30Shots on goal31
2.7Expected goals5.2
67Shot attempts48
22Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
10Penalty minutes6
24Hits22
8Blocked shots20
3Giveaways10
6Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 5.2 xGCBJ 2.7 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #462 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 57% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 83% of the time.

COL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).