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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 19, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Washington Capitals 4, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

Washington Capitals

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.

EDM winsWSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
WSH01608418442
EDM0102809227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:05EDMShawn HorcoffAssists: Patrick O'Sullivan · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:42EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Ryan Potulny, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
  3. P3 0:32WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Mike Green, Jeff Schultz · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
  4. P3 6:37WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Karl Alzner · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P3 13:13WSHTomas FleischmannGWGAssists: Mike Knuble, Jeff Schultz · Slap, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 16:19WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Tyler Sloan, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 17:13EDMDustin Penner: Holding2 min
  2. P2 0:54EDMSteve Staios: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 0:54WSHChris Clark: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 5:06EDMSam Gagner: Hooking2 min
  5. P3 4:06WSHTom Poti: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 8:27EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 8:36EDMTom Gilbert: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  8. P3 13:23WSHTomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

WSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← WSH attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Potulny won the faceoff against Laich
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

WSHEDM
42Shots on goal27
4.4Expected goals2.2
84Shot attempts48
42Faceoffs won30
4Power plays2
9Penalty minutes13
14Hits19
8Blocked shots23
18Giveaways21
4Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 2.2 xGWSH 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMWSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #344 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
WSH 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +35 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.

EDM winsWSH wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − WSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).