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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 20, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Detroit Red Wings 0, Chicago Blackhawks 3

Away

Detroit Red Wings

0

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.

CHI winsDET wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DET0505010020
CHI18214013335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:58CHIDuncan KeithPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Kris Versteeg · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:05CHIBrian CampbellAssists: Patrick Sharp, Andrew Ladd · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
  3. P2 19:27CHIDustin ByfuglienAssists: John Madden, Duncan Keith · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:07DETKirk Maltby: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 4:52CHIPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 6:11DETTodd Bertuzzi: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 6:32DETJustin Abdelkader: Too many men on the ice2 min
  5. P2 12:07CHIPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 0:38DETPavel Datsyuk: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 0:38CHIKris Versteeg: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 15:33DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
  9. P3 18:10CHIAndrew Ladd: Misconduct10 min
  10. P3 18:10DETTodd Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DET00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← DET attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Madden won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DETCHI
20Shots on goal35
1.6Expected goals3.5
38Shot attempts63
16Faceoffs won29
2Power plays4
20Penalty minutes16
24Hits16
16Blocked shots13
7Giveaways2
3Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.5 xGDET 1.6 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHIDET

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.

Excitement 3/100 · #1183 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DET 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 80% of the time.

CHI winsDET wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).