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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 20, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

St. Louis Blues 3, Vancouver Canucks 1

Away

St. Louis Blues

3

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.

VAN winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL1821404326
VAN1140709130

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:59STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Paul Kariya, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.34 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:15VANShane O'BrienAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 11:48STLDavid BackesGWGAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:15STLKeith TkachukAssists: Brad Boyes, Barret Jackman · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:14VANAaron Rome: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:19STLBrad Winchester: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 10:06STLBrad Winchester: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 10:10VANRyan Kesler: Interference2 min
  5. P1 13:42VANMikael Samuelsson: Interference2 min
  6. P1 15:46VANSteve Bernier: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 15:46STLDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 5:54STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 8:50STLBrad Winchester: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Backes
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLVAN
26Shots on goal30
2.2Expected goals2.4
44Shot attempts59
34Faceoffs won34
3Power plays4
10Penalty minutes8
15Hits15
19Blocked shots9
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.4 xGSTL 2.2 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #979 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.03 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.

VAN winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).