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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 2

Away

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Final

Home

New York Islanders

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.

NYI winsTBL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TBL0621428428
NYI113115010238

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 16:47NYITrent HunterPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Jack Hillen · Snap, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P2 6:20TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Ryan Malone · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:25NYINate ThompsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:41TBLVincent LecavalierAssists: Alex Tanguay, Ryan Malone · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
  5. P3 2:48TBLRyan MalonePPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–2
  6. P3 11:39TBLRyan MalonePPAssists: Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.26 xG4–2
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 9:58TBLDavid Hale: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 15:27TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 19:23NYIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P2 0:56TBLKurtis Foster: Holding2 min
  5. P2 16:46TBLVictor Hedman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 17:23NYIJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 2:37NYIJack Hillen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  8. P3 7:43TBLPaul Szczechura: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  9. P3 11:00NYIAndy Sutton: Interference2 min · PPG
  10. P3 16:51TBLMatt Smaby: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TBL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← TBL attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TBLNYI
28Shots on goal38
3.9Expected goals3.8
52Shot attempts66
25Faceoffs won31
4Power plays6
12Penalty minutes8
28Hits24
15Blocked shots12
17Giveaways15
14Takeaways12

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.8 xGTBL 3.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYITBL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #552 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.64 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
TBL 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.

NYI winsTBL wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).