Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Wachovia Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 19 | 210 | 430 |
| PHI | 012 | 07 | 112 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53FLANathan HortonPPAssists: Keith Ballard, Stephen Weiss · Tip-in, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 2:01FLAStephen WeissPPGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P3 1:30FLAMichael FrolikPPAssists: Bryan McCabe, Stephen Weiss · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–0
- P3 5:54FLANathan HortonAssists: Stephen Weiss, Michael Frolik · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 13:47PHIBraydon CoburnAssists: Jeff Carter, Chris Pronger · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (25)
- P1 1:48FLAGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:48PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:24FLARostislav Olesz: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:13PHIScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:42FLABryan McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:42PHIMike Richards: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:44FLARadek Dvorak: Boarding2 min
- P1 13:26FLAMike Duco: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:26PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:26FLABryan McCabe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:43PHIDaniel Brière: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 6:17FLASteve Reinprecht: Holding2 min
- P2 13:18PHIMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:53FLAMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:19PHIBlair Betts: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:33PHIArron Asham: Interference2 min
- P3 9:38FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:58PHIIan Laperriere: Charging5 min
- P3 12:58PHIIan Laperriere: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:58PHIIan Laperriere: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 12:58FLADennis Seidenberg: Instigator2 min
- P3 12:58FLADennis Seidenberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:58FLADennis Seidenberg: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P3 14:12FLABryan Allen: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:39PHIChris Pronger: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Reinprecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).