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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1

Away

New York Rangers

3

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.

CAR winsNYR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NYR0917215331
CAR08112013133

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:46CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Brandon Sutter, Brett Carson · Wrap-around, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:14NYRMarian GaborikAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
  3. P3 1:21NYRBrandon DubinskyGWGAssists: Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P3 19:27NYRMarc StaalENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.43 xG3–1
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 10:28NYRMarc Staal: High sticking2 min
  2. P2 10:46NYRMatt Gilroy: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 18:46NYRVinny Prospal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P3 5:18CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NYR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← NYR attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dubinsky
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NYRCAR
31Shots on goal33
3.7Expected goals2.5
54Shot attempts64
31Faceoffs won25
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
20Hits39
18Blocked shots10
5Giveaways6
7Takeaways13

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 2.5 xGNYR 3.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARNYR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #952 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.10 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
NYR 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 69% of the time.

CAR winsNYR wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).