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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Philips Arena, Atlanta

Montréal Canadiens 4, Atlanta Thrashers 3 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Atlanta Thrashers

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 76% of the time.

ATL winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL032101911423
ATL11801821202350

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:43ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Ron Hainsey, Maxim Afinogenov · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
  2. P2 1:32MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
  3. P2 10:23MTLAndrei KostitsynPPAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–1
  4. P3 0:22ATLNik AntropovAssists: Pavel Kubina, Toby Enstrom · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–2
  5. P3 1:42ATLNik AntropovPPAssists: Toby Enstrom, Vyacheslav Kozlov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
  6. P3 18:15MTLMarc-Andre BergeronPPAssists: Andrei Markov, Tomas Plekanec · Slap, 0.05 xG3–3
  7. OT 2:23MTLMarc-Andre BergeronGWGAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 10:40MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 13:21ATLEvander Kane: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 9:52ATLJim Slater: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P2 12:30MTLJosh Gorges: Holding2 min
  5. P2 16:02MTLMarc-Andre Bergeron: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  6. P3 1:12MTLJaroslav Spacek: Hooking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 6:35MTLScott Gomez: Holding2 min
  8. P3 15:28MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 17:51ATLZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ATL
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackATL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Metropolit won the faceoff against Reasoner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLATL
23Shots on goal50
2.8Expected goals4.6
44Shot attempts73
24Faceoffs won35
3Power plays6
12Penalty minutes6
15Hits13
17Blocked shots11
8Giveaways6
10Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ATL 4.6 xGMTL 2.8 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ATLMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 90/100 · #101 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.44 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 9% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50ATL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +39 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Atlanta Thrashers win this game 76% of the time.

ATL winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (ATL − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).