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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Boston Bruins 2, Ottawa Senators 0

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS01201027229
OTT01101206029

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P3 3:19BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
  2. P3 13:07BOSMarco SturmAssists: Marc Savard, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 8:22OTTErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 0:28OTTChris Phillips: Interference2 min
  3. P2 14:04OTTJonathan Cheechoo: High sticking2 min
  4. P3 18:31OTTAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 18:31BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 18:31BOSSteve Begin: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 18:31OTTAlex Kovalev: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Winchester won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSOTT
29Shots on goal29
2.8Expected goals2.3
55Shot attempts57
32Faceoffs won24
3Power plays0
4Penalty minutes10
30Hits29
16Blocked shots16
13Giveaways8
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 2.3 xGBOS 2.8 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 8/100 · #1135 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.70 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.

OTT winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).