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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh

New Jersey Devils 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 0

Away

New Jersey Devils

4

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD1531609430
PIT010011014035

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:39NJDBryce SalvadorGWGAssists: Dean McAmmond, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P2 0:23NJDNiclas BergforsPPAssists: Zach Parise, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 8:27NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Dean McAmmond, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
  4. P2 11:03NJDMark FraserAssists: Zach Parise, Patrik Elias · Slap, 0.04 xG4–0
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 11:47NJDBryce Salvador: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 19:43PITAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:33PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
  4. P2 1:11NJDVladimir Zharkov: Interference2 min
  5. P2 5:13NJDVladimir Zharkov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 17:55NJDDean McAmmond: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 17:55NJDDean McAmmond: Misconduct10 min
  8. P2 17:55NJDPatrik Elias: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 17:55PITMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 17:55PITMax Talbot: Misconduct10 min
  11. P3 0:49NJDBryce Salvador: Holding2 min
  12. P3 4:32PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Niedermayer won the faceoff against Malkin
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDPIT
30Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals2.6
55Shot attempts64
22Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
22Penalty minutes18
20Hits33
12Blocked shots15
4Giveaways7
2Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 2.6 xGNJD 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 6/100 · #1150 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.64 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.

PIT winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).