Skip to content
Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Colorado Avalanche 4, Minnesota Wild 3

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL183904421
MIN06112213331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 19:49COLMatt DucheneAssists: Darcy Tucker, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:49COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:29COLMilan HejdukAssists: TJ Galiardi · Snap, 0.04 xG3–0
  4. P2 13:55MINCal ClutterbuckSHAssists: Nick Schultz · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
  5. P2 17:16COLMatt HendricksSHGWGAssists: Cody McLeod · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
  6. P3 12:05MINOwen NolanAssists: Chuck Kobasew, Kim Johnsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
  7. P3 13:57MINMartin HavlatAssists: Clayton Stoner, Andrew Brunette · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 2:12COLMilan Hejduk: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 16:05MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 17:26MINOwen Nolan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P2 7:11MINCal Clutterbuck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  5. P2 9:33COLChris Durno: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 9:33MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 11:19COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 11:19MINShane Hnidy: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 12:12MINMartin Havlat: Boarding2 min
  10. P2 16:31COLPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 17:55COLRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
  12. P3 3:35MINDerek Boogaard: Boarding2 min
  13. P3 9:55COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← COL attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ebbett won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLMIN
21Shots on goal31
1.8Expected goals3.3
41Shot attempts56
19Faceoffs won32
5Power plays4
15Penalty minutes17
9Hits18
15Blocked shots17
4Giveaways8
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 3.3 xGCOL 1.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 69/100 · #356 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 77% of the time.

MIN winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).