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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

San Jose Sharks 4, Dallas Stars 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

4

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS07211214432
DAL01301728238

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 9:43SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Ryane Clowe · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
  2. P2 18:01SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
  3. P3 0:18DALJamie BennAssists: Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:43SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
  5. P3 5:38DALLoui ErikssonPPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Brad Richards · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:10SJSRyane CloweENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 1:39SJSJoe Pavelski: Delaying game2 min
  2. P1 14:51SJSRob Blake: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 16:21DALMike Modano: Cross checking2 min
  4. P1 16:21SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 0:00SJSRob Blake: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 5:28SJSMarc-Edouard Vlasic: Roughing2 min
  7. P3 5:33SJSDany Heatley: Tripping2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Wandell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSDAL
32Shots on goal38
2.3Expected goals3.2
53Shot attempts66
28Faceoffs won24
0Power plays5
12Penalty minutes2
31Hits35
8Blocked shots9
4Giveaways13
7Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 3.2 xGSJS 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 46/100 · #648 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.37 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 66% of the time.

DAL winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).