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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

St. Louis Blues 7, Edmonton Oilers 2

Away

St. Louis Blues

7

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
STL15411210726
EDM11111004225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:04STLDavid PerronAssists: Patrik Berglund, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:40EDMSam GagnerAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
  3. P2 2:52STLAndy McDonaldAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:18EDMDustin PennerAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 13:29STLBrad BoyesPPGWGAssists: Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–2
  6. P2 16:29STLPatrik BerglundPPAssists: Paul Kariya, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.24 xG4–2
  7. P2 17:08STLJay McClementAssists: Alexander Steen, Mike Weaver · Snap, 0.09 xG5–2
  8. P3 2:01STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Brad Boyes, Alexander Steen · Slap, 0.08 xG6–2
  9. P3 16:01STLAlexander SteenPPAssists: Darryl Sydor, Brad Winchester · Snap, 0.11 xG7–2
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:01EDMRobert Nilsson: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 7:16STLJay McClement: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:28EDMZack Stortini: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 2:28STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 4:28EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 4:28STLBrad Winchester: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 13:21EDMSheldon Souray: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:02EDMLubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 18:32STLErik Johnson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  10. P3 0:20EDMShawn Horcoff: High sticking2 min · PPG
  11. P3 5:34STLAlexander Steen: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 14:56EDMEthan Moreau: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 19:04EDMEthan Moreau: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 19:04STLDarryl Sydor: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Penner
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLEDM
26Shots on goal25
2.3Expected goals1.7
59Shot attempts51
34Faceoffs won26
5Power plays3
21Penalty minutes25
8Hits15
14Blocked shots20
7Giveaways21
9Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 1.7 xGSTL 2.3 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #551 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.36 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 63% of the time.

EDM winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).