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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 21, 2009·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Phoenix Coyotes 5

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Phoenix Coyotes

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

PHX winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ091919227
PHX2824111523

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:53PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:44PHXMatthew LombardiAssists: Scottie Upshall, Anders Eriksson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:39PHXShane DoanGWGAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Scottie Upshall · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–3
  4. P2 6:27CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Raffi Torres, Mathieu Roy · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
  5. P2 13:19PHXRadim VrbataAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Martin Hanzal · Slap, 0.08 xG1–4
  6. P3 7:19PHXScottie UpshallPPAssists: Matthew Lombardi, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
  7. P3 8:47CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Jakub Voracek, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–5
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 8:11CBJMathieu Roy: Interference2 min
  2. P1 12:44PHXZbynek Michalek: Boarding2 min
  3. P1 17:34CBJJason Chimera: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 13:19CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 13:19CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 13:19PHXRadim Vrbata: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 13:19CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 13:19PHXMartin Hanzal: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 6:55CBJMarc Methot: Instigator2 min · PPG
  10. P3 6:55CBJMarc Methot: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 6:55CBJMarc Methot: Misconduct10 min
  12. P3 6:55PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 9:05CBJJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
  14. P3 11:08CBJRick Nash: High sticking2 min
  15. P3 14:31PHXAnders Eriksson: Hooking2 min
  16. P3 17:34CBJFreddy Modin: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PHX
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackPHX attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Hanzal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJPHX
27Shots on goal23
2.1Expected goals3.3
36Shot attempts50
25Faceoffs won29
2Power plays7
36Penalty minutes16
19Hits26
13Blocked shots7
2Giveaways2
3Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PHX 3.3 xGCBJ 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PHXCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 41/100 · #725 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.67 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50PHX 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.

PHX winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (PHX − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).