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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 22, 2009·United Center, Chicago

San Jose Sharks 3, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Away

San Jose Sharks

3

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.

CHI winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SJS141317314
CHI015011221247

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:18SJSDany HeatleyAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:10SJSJoe ThorntonSHAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
  3. P3 4:10CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 4:30SJSJason DemersGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 18:09CHIMarian HossaAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 1:15SJSJed Ortmeyer: Holding2 min
  2. P1 12:08SJSRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 14:57SJSJason Demers: Tripping2 min
  4. P1 16:00CHITroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 19:20CHIKris Versteeg: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P1 19:51SJSJoe Thornton: Interference2 min
  7. P2 3:43CHIBryan Bickell: Fighting5 min
  8. P2 3:43SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  9. P2 3:43SJSJamie McGinn: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 8:07CHIPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 10:31SJSKent Huskins: Hooking2 min
  12. P2 17:00CHIDustin Byfuglien: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  13. P3 5:38CHITroy Brouwer: High sticking2 min
  14. P3 13:09SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
  15. P3 17:06SJSRob Blake: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 17:06CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← SJS attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Madden
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSCHI
14Shots on goal47
1.5Expected goals3.7
32Shot attempts77
24Faceoffs won30
5Power plays7
21Penalty minutes17
15Hits18
17Blocked shots13
1Giveaways8
8Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 3.7 xGSJS 1.5 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHISJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 35/100 · #803 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.18 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 42% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 83% of the time.

CHI winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).