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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 22, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Anaheim Ducks 4, Colorado Avalanche 2

Away

Anaheim Ducks

4

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 91% of the time.

COL winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA014014415443
COL160417217

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:09COLBrandon YipAssists: Matt Hendricks, Brett Clark · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P3 3:28COLPaul StastnyAssists: John-Michael Liles, Wojtek Wolski · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–2
  3. P3 12:26ANAScott NiedermayerAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P3 15:05ANADan SextonAssists: Saku Koivu, Matt Beleskey · Slap, 0.13 xG2–2
  5. P3 19:34ANARyan GetzlafGWGAssists: Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
  6. P3 19:49ANATodd MarchantENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 3:35ANANick Boynton: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 11:15COLKyle Quincey: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 17:48COLMatt Hendricks: Holding2 min
  4. P2 2:45ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  5. P2 2:45COLMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 12:51COLScott Hannan: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 18:44ANAMatt Beleskey: Slashing2 min
  8. P3 8:10ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANACOL
43Shots on goal17
4.9Expected goals1.7
73Shot attempts35
32Faceoffs won32
3Power plays3
11Penalty minutes11
22Hits13
6Blocked shots16
6Giveaways13
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 1.7 xGANA 4.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 67/100 · #387 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.58 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 4% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 91% of the time.

COL winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).