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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 22, 2009·General Motors Place, Vancouver

Nashville Predators 1, Vancouver Canucks 4

Away

Nashville Predators

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.

VAN winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH060718121
VAN01421428436

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:39VANSteve BernierAssists: Tanner Glass, Kyle Wellwood · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:23VANDaniel SedinPPGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
  3. P3 6:53VANSami SaloAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG0–3
  4. P3 9:31VANHenrik SedinAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.20 xG0–4
  5. P3 14:36NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: J-P Dumont, Marcel Goc · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 3:05NSHRyan Suter: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 10:01VANRick Rypien: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 15:30NSHDave Scatchard: Cross checking2 min
  4. P2 3:08VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 5:21NSHShea Weber: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 5:21VANRyan Kesler: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 14:35NSHDave Scatchard: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackVAN attack →
  1. Press play, or drag along the timeline.
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHVAN
21Shots on goal36
1.5Expected goals2.8
46Shot attempts60
22Faceoffs won27
2Power plays3
11Penalty minutes9
8Hits10
14Blocked shots13
4Giveaways6
10Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.8 xGNSH 1.5 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 16/100 · #1042 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.66 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 74% of the time.

VAN winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).