Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·TD Garden, Boston

Atlanta Thrashers 4, Boston Bruins 6

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

4

Final

Home

Boston Bruins

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.

BOS winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL21107211429
BOS31017214631

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:44BOSMarc SavardPPAssists: Zdeno Chara, Dennis Wideman · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
  2. P1 10:32BOSDaniel PailleAssists: Mark Recchi, Steve Begin · Tip-in, 0.20 xG0–2
  3. P1 10:52BOSVladimir SobotkaAssists: Shawn Thornton, Matt Hunwick · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–3
  4. P1 14:44ATLBryan LittleAssists: Maxim Afinogenov · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
  5. P1 17:28ATLMaxim AfinogenovAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
  6. P2 2:14BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Marc Savard, Dennis Wideman · Slap, 0.06 xG2–4
  7. P3 9:32BOSMichael RyderPPGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Marc Savard · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–5
  8. P3 13:58ATLEvander KaneAssists: Todd White, Colby Armstrong · Snap, 0.12 xG3–5
  9. P3 15:08ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Maxim Afinogenov, Nik Antropov · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
  10. P3 19:56BOSPatrice BergeronENAssists: Mark Recchi, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.62 xG4–6
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 8:43ATLToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P1 12:40BOSSteve Begin: Interference2 min
  3. P1 17:59BOSPatrice Bergeron: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 0:28ATLColby Armstrong: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  5. P2 0:43ATLMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 12:49BOSSteve Begin: Slashing2 min
  7. P3 6:59BOSAdam McQuaid: Roughing2 min
  8. P3 7:34ATLIlya Kovalchuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 8:17ATLMaxim Afinogenov: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0BOS
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackBOS attack →
  1. P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Krejci
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLBOS
29Shots on goal31
2.1Expected goals3.0
53Shot attempts42
34Faceoffs won30
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
22Hits21
8Blocked shots15
4Giveaways5
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

BOS 3.0 xGATL 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

BOSATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 85/100 · #151 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.22 · 10 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50BOS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 67% of the time.

BOS winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (BOS − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).