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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, New York Islanders 3

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

New York Islanders

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.

NYI winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR0508114127
NYI072917323

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 10:47NYITrent HunterUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P2 12:17NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Blake Comeau, Andy Sutton · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
  3. P3 1:56TORNiklas HagmanAssists: Mikhail Grabovski, Tomas Kaberle · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:25NYIBlake ComeauENAssists: Nate Thompson, Richard Park · Wrist, 0.73 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:20TORMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 17:39NYIJon Sim: Holding2 min
  3. P2 8:44TORJeff Finger: Slashing2 min
  4. P3 7:43NYIBrendan Witt: Cross checking2 min
  5. P3 12:17TORJason Blake: Interference2 min
  6. P3 19:37TORTomas Kaberle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← TOR attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Park won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORNYI
27Shots on goal23
2.4Expected goals3.6
66Shot attempts53
21Faceoffs won24
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
15Hits21
15Blocked shots29
14Giveaways21
19Takeaways17

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.6 xGTOR 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYITOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 18/100 · #997 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.95 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 53% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +21 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 71% of the time.

NYI winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).