Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Mellon Arena, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 124 | 015 | 18 | 247 |
| PIT | 19 | 515 | 212 | 836 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Sergei Gonchar · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:05OTTAnton VolchenkovAssists: Peter Regin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:03PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Sergei Gonchar · Wrist, 0.40 xG1–2
- P2 7:35PITRuslan FedotenkoGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 11:25PITChris KunitzAssists: Bill Guerin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 13:57PITBill GuerinPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Chris Kunitz · Snap, 0.20 xG1–5
- P2 18:27PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Chris Kunitz, Bill Guerin · Snap, 0.08 xG1–6
- P3 1:43PITSergei GoncharAssists: Matt Cooke, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.19 xG1–7
- P3 6:33PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–8
- P3 18:09OTTChris KellyAssists: Jesse Winchester, Jonathan Cheechoo · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–8
Penalties (21)
- P1 3:11OTTChris Phillips: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:01PITMike Rupp: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:09OTTAnton Volchenkov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:30PITRuslan Fedotenko: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:51OTTMilan Michalek: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:03PITRuslan Fedotenko: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:42OTTJonathan Cheechoo: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:50OTTJonathan Cheechoo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:43OTTChris Neil: Charging2 min
- P2 2:43PITMike Rupp: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:16PITJay McKee: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:27OTTShean Donovan: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 0:03PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:03OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:51PITCraig Adams: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:51OTTMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:30PITTyler Kennedy: Holding2 min
- P3 8:11OTTShean Donovan: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:11OTTShean Donovan: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:18PITBill Guerin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:42OTTAnton Volchenkov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).