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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·RBC Center, Raleigh

Montréal Canadiens 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1

Away

Montréal Canadiens

5

Final

Home

Carolina Hurricanes

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.

CAR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL41111004525
CAR113018016147

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:29MTLAndrei MarkovPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 3:42MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
  3. P1 7:21CARBrandon SutterPPAssists: Tim Gleason, Brett Carson · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
  4. P1 9:32MTLSergei KostitsynAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Scott Gomez · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–1
  5. P1 17:08MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Josh Gorges · Slap, 0.05 xG4–1
  6. P2 18:03MTLGlen MetropolitPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Jaroslav Spacek · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 0:24CARAaron Ward: Boarding2 min · PPG
  2. P1 6:01MTLScott Gomez: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 6:01MTLScott Gomez: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 15:28CARTom Kostopoulos: Interference2 min · PPG
  5. P2 9:08MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 10:44MTLAndrei Markov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P2 11:53CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 16:55CARAaron Ward: Tripping2 min · PPG
  9. P3 6:52CARJussi Jokinen: High sticking2 min
  10. P3 9:33MTLHal Gill: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CAR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackCAR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Metropolit
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLCAR
25Shots on goal47
2.2Expected goals6.2
45Shot attempts84
26Faceoffs won39
5Power plays5
10Penalty minutes10
22Hits36
17Blocked shots12
5Giveaways10
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CAR 6.2 xGMTL 2.2 xG
0246P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CARMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 27/100 · #907 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.89 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50CAR 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 94% of the time.

CAR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).