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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Edmonton Oilers 1, Minnesota Wild 3

Away

Edmonton Oilers

1

Final

Home

Minnesota Wild

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM1140908131
MIN11011017327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:35MINAndrew BrunettePPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Mikko Koivu · Backhand, 0.32 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:24EDMRobert NilssonAssists: Tom Gilbert · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
  3. P2 18:22MINOwen NolanGWGAssists: Eric Belanger, Chuck Kobasew · Backhand, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P3 19:54MINGuillaume LatendresseENAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 9:02EDMRyan Stone: Fighting5 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:02MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 13:06EDMRyan Potulny: High sticking2 min
  4. P1 15:49EDMSteve Staios: Interference2 min
  5. P2 7:56EDMGilbert Brule: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 14:30MINDerek Boogaard: Cross checking2 min
  7. P3 0:17EDMGilbert Brule: High sticking2 min
  8. P3 1:07MINOwen Nolan: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 1:07EDMSheldon Souray: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 3:48MINKim Johnsson: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 9:01MINMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 9:01EDMRobert Nilsson: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 10:31MINKyle Brodziak: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 10:31EDMDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 10:31MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 13:37EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
43% to win57% to win
← EDM attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Potulny won the faceoff against Brodziak
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMMIN
31Shots on goal27
2.0Expected goals3.6
50Shot attempts67
20Faceoffs won32
3Power plays5
24Penalty minutes20
22Hits16
22Blocked shots13
2Giveaways15
2Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 3.6 xGEDM 2.0 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #868 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.13 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 51% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 79% of the time.

MIN winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).