Wed, Dec 23, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 216 | 04 | 316 | 536 |
| TBL | 09 | 214 | 010 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59PHIBlair BettsAssists: Daniel Carcillo, Ian Laperriere · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 9:34PHIMike RichardsPPAssists: Simon Gagne, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 5:58TBLZenon KonopkaAssists: Steve Downie · Backhand, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 12:02TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Kurtis Foster, Martin St. Louis · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 10:01PHIBlair BettsGWGAssists: Oskars Bartulis, Ian Laperriere · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 17:22PHIMike RichardsAssists: Claude Giroux, Oskars Bartulis · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 19:26PHISimon GagneENAssists: Claude Giroux, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.63 xG5–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:01TBLSteve Downie: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:31PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 10:31TBLVincent Lecavalier: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:25TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:09TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09TBLZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:09PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:55PHIOskars Bartulis: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:23PHISimon Gagne: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:57PHIArron Asham: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richards won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).