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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Chicago Blackhawks 3, Detroit Red Wings 0

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI010110211331
DET01101309033

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 0:30CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Brian Campbell, Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P3 3:47CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Duncan Keith, Marian Hossa · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–0
  3. P3 18:42CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–0
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 4:03DETKris Draper: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 6:01CHIBrent Seabrook: Hooking2 min
  3. P1 6:01CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 6:01DETKirk Maltby: Roughing2 min
  5. P1 18:56DETTodd Bertuzzi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  6. P2 4:02CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 12:53CHIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
  8. P3 3:02CHIDustin Byfuglien: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 3:02DETKirk Maltby: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 4:47CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min
  11. P3 5:36DETTodd Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
  12. P3 14:00CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Helm won the faceoff against Sharp
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIDET
31Shots on goal33
1.7Expected goals2.5
53Shot attempts55
27Faceoffs won27
3Power plays5
14Penalty minutes10
22Hits33
11Blocked shots16
3Giveaways11
3Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.5 xGCHI 1.7 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 9/100 · #1113 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.74 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.

DET winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).