Skip to content
Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Dallas Stars 3

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ110013011134
DAL1911118328

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:16CBJRick NashAssists: Antoine Vermette, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:23DALJamie BennAssists: Tom Wandell, Stephane Robidas · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
  3. P2 6:18DALJames NealGWGAssists: Loui Eriksson, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
  4. P3 10:28DALJames NealAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 4:34DALLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 12:35CBJJan Hejda: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:55DALMaxime Fortunus: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 10:31DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:07CBJJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  6. P2 18:11DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 18:11CBJSamuel Pahlsson: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 18:11CBJJason Chimera: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 18:11DALSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  10. P3 0:44CBJMike Blunden: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 0:44DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 4:04CBJMathieu Roy: Interference2 min
  13. P3 14:58CBJFedor Tyutin: Tripping2 min
  14. P3 17:27DALTom Wandell: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Vermette
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJDAL
34Shots on goal28
2.2Expected goals2.1
78Shot attempts59
37Faceoffs won29
4Power plays4
17Penalty minutes17
30Hits32
18Blocked shots24
4Giveaways12
2Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 2.1 xGCBJ 2.2 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 20/100 · #974 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.04 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 37% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +19 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 51% of the time.

DAL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).