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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 23, 2009·Pengrowth Saddledome, Calgary

St. Louis Blues 2, Calgary Flames 1 (SO)

Away

St. Louis Blues

2

Final

Shootout

Home

Calgary Flames

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.

CGY winsSTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
STL0811006031227
CGY0407111020124

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 6:55STLPatrik BerglundAssists: David Perron, Mike Weaver · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
  2. P3 12:18CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Daymond Langkow · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. STL Andy McDonald stopped
  2. 2. CGY Nigel Dawes stopped
  3. 3. STL Brad Boyes scored
  4. 4. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
  5. 5. STL T.J. Oshie stopped
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 12:25STLDavid Perron: Holding the stick2 min
  2. P1 17:06CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 2:40STLMike Weaver: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 12:29CGYAaron Johnson: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

STL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CGY
43% to win57% to win
← STL attackCGY attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Langkow
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

STLCGY
27Shots on goal24
1.5Expected goals1.2
48Shot attempts58
25Faceoffs won28
2Power plays2
4Penalty minutes4
11Hits26
22Blocked shots11
13Giveaways15
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CGY 1.2 xGSTL 1.5 xG
00.511.5P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CGYSTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #736 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
STL 100%5050%50CGY 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +33 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.

CGY winsSTL wins

Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).