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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·Air Canada Centre, Toronto

Montréal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2 (OT)

Away

Montréal Canadiens

3

Final

Overtime

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
MTL29050811323
TOR01611711600249

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:34MTLScott GomezPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Marc-Andre Bergeron · Snap, 0.36 xG1–0
  2. P1 4:28MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
  3. P2 15:07TORIan WhiteAssists: Nikolay Kulemin, Matt Stajan · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P3 2:41TORJason BlakeAssists: Rickard Wallin, Mike Komisarek · Snap, 0.44 xG2–2
  5. OT 0:34MTLAndrei KostitsynGWGAssists: Andrei Markov, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 2:35TORLuke Schenn: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 7:04TORColton Orr: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 8:53MTLGlen Metropolit: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  4. P1 9:35MTLTravis Moen: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 15:40MTLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
  6. P2 8:50MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TOR
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackTOR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Metropolit won the faceoff against Grabovski
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLTOR
23Shots on goal49
1.9Expected goals4.3
43Shot attempts94
20Faceoffs won39
2Power plays4
8Penalty minutes4
20Hits19
18Blocked shots12
5Giveaways4
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TOR 4.3 xGMTL 1.9 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TORMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 64/100 · #431 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.48 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50TOR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +26 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.

TOR winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).