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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

New Jersey Devils 1, Washington Capitals 4

Away

New Jersey Devils

1

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsNJD wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NJD11505010130
WSH21411917440

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:09WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P1 13:54WSHMatt BradleyGWGAssists: David Steckel, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
  3. P1 17:18NJDRod PelleyAssists: Ilkka Pikkarainen · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:52WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alexander Semin, Alex Ovechkin · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
  5. P3 0:39WSHMike GreenAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
  1. P1 19:05WSHShaone Morrisonn: Holding2 min
  2. P2 2:51WSHJeff Schultz: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 11:42WSHMilan Jurcina: Holding2 min
  4. P2 14:17WSHAlexander Semin: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 17:31NJDJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 18:31NJDAndy Greene: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NJD00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← NJD attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Morrison
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NJDWSH
30Shots on goal40
2.1Expected goals3.2
55Shot attempts61
26Faceoffs won32
4Power plays2
4Penalty minutes8
19Hits23
10Blocked shots15
3Giveaways11
8Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.2 xGNJD 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHNJD

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #921 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.78 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
NJD 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsNJD wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − NJD), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).