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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Detroit Red Wings 2

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

1

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ1150509129
DET06111110227

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 12:10CBJAntoine VermetteAssists: Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:38DETTodd BertuzziPPAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Nicklas Lidstrom · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 2:44DETTodd BertuzziGWGAssists: Brian Rafalski, Nicklas Lidstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 2:48DETJustin Abdelkader: Interference2 min
  2. P1 5:29DETTomas Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
  3. P1 13:51CBJMike Commodore: Slashing2 min
  4. P1 17:03CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 3:40DETDoug Janik: Holding2 min
  6. P2 5:18CBJFedor Tyutin: Holding2 min · PPG
  7. P2 13:21CBJFreddy Modin: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 15:56DETTodd Bertuzzi: Holding2 min
  9. P3 10:18CBJRaffi Torres: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 16:42DETKris Draper: Interference2 min
  11. P3 16:42CBJRaffi Torres: Diving2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DET
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackDET attack →
  1. P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Datsyuk
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJDET
29Shots on goal27
2.8Expected goals2.9
46Shot attempts51
20Faceoffs won24
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
25Hits23
10Blocked shots5
8Giveaways6
7Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DET 2.9 xGCBJ 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DETCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #813 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.20 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 34% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50DET 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.

DET winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (DET − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).