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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·Sommet Center, Nashville

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Nashville Predators 1

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Home

Nashville Predators

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI11531609440
NSH0811008126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:44CHIDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 7:38NSHMartin EratUnassisted · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
  3. P2 12:26CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Cam Barker · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 13:36CHIAndrew LaddAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Brian Campbell · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
  5. P2 18:47CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.47 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 7:02NSHJ-P Dumont: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 9:02NSHFrancis Bouillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
  3. P2 0:40CHIAndrew Ladd: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 8:36NSHRyan Jones: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 8:36CHIBen Eager: Cross checking2 min
  6. P2 14:38CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
  7. P2 15:31NSHFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min
  8. P3 5:27CHIJordan Hendry: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NSH
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackNSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sharp won the faceoff against Arnott
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHINSH
40Shots on goal26
2.9Expected goals1.7
61Shot attempts54
27Faceoffs won30
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
14Hits25
17Blocked shots11
9Giveaways14
16Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NSH 1.7 xGCHI 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NSHCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 32/100 · #851 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.07 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50NSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.

NSH winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).