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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·Pepsi Center, Denver

Dallas Stars 1, Colorado Avalanche 4

Away

Dallas Stars

1

Final

Home

Colorado Avalanche

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL010013117140
COL11416213433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 6:04COLChris DurnoAssists: Matt Hendricks, Darcy Tucker · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 14:04COLMilan HejdukGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
  3. P3 7:44DALSteve OttAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Jere Lehtinen · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P3 13:34COLChris StewartAssists: Paul Stastny, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P3 19:02COLChris StewartAssists: Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
  1. P1 19:59COLAdam Foote: Holding2 min
  2. P2 7:14DALJames Neal: Interference2 min
  3. P2 8:30DALNicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 18:34DALMatt Niskanen: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← DAL attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Richards
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALCOL
40Shots on goal33
2.6Expected goals2.1
69Shot attempts57
24Faceoffs won22
1Power plays3
6Penalty minutes2
22Hits27
15Blocked shots14
5Giveaways2
11Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 2.1 xGDAL 2.6 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #920 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.

COL winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).