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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 26, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 5

Away

Anaheim Ducks

2

Final

Home

San Jose Sharks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.

SJS winsANA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ANA011111110232
SJS21131103525

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:15SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:19SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
  3. P2 7:41SJSDany HeatleyGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Rob Blake · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
  4. P2 13:00SJSRyane ClowePPAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Rob Blake · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–4
  5. P2 13:15SJSJamie McGinnAssists: Scott Nichol, Manny Malhotra · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–5
  6. P2 18:56ANAKyle ChipchuraUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
  7. P3 4:39ANABobby RyanAssists: Corey Perry, Petteri Nokelainen · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 2:18SJSFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:18ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 14:23ANAPetteri Nokelainen: Interference2 min · PPG
  4. P1 15:55SJSScott Nichol: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 5:09SJSKent Huskins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 11:41ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min · PPG
  7. P2 11:41SJSJoe Pavelski: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 11:41ANACorey Perry: Interference2 min
  9. P3 2:34SJSJamie McGinn: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 12:17SJSScott Nichol: Fighting5 min
  11. P3 12:17ANAKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 13:13SJSPatrick Marleau: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 18:20SJSJed Ortmeyer: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 18:20ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ANA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← ANA attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Thornton
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ANASJS
32Shots on goal25
3.4Expected goals2.2
61Shot attempts51
22Faceoffs won27
4Power plays2
21Penalty minutes25
38Hits23
15Blocked shots10
11Giveaways15
9Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 2.2 xGANA 3.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSANA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 60/100 · #502 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 5 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
ANA 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.

SJS winsANA wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).