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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 27, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Philadelphia Flyers 2, New York Islanders 1

Away

Philadelphia Flyers

2

Final

Home

New York Islanders

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PHI11211107230
NYI01211007129

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:51PHIDaniel BrièreAssists: Jeff Carter, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
  2. P2 3:35NYIJon SimAssists: Mark Streit, Rob Schremp · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
  3. P2 16:53PHIJeff CarterGWGAssists: Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 17:13PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
  2. P1 17:13NYITim Jackman: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 19:10NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 12:29NYITim Jackman: Tripping2 min
  5. P2 19:05PHIDaniel Carcillo: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 19:05NYIJon Sim: Diving2 min
  7. P3 4:38PHIChris Pronger: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 9:49NYITrent Hunter: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 9:49PHIArron Asham: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 9:49PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← PHI attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Powe won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHINYI
30Shots on goal29
2.8Expected goals2.1
67Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won23
2Power plays2
10Penalty minutes10
20Hits29
18Blocked shots20
12Giveaways13
15Takeaways18

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 2.1 xGPHI 2.8 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYIPHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 30/100 · #871 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.14 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
PHI 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 64% of the time.

NYI winsPHI wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).