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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 27, 2009·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise

Boston Bruins 2, Florida Panthers 1

Away

Boston Bruins

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS08110110228
FLA1140705126

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:09FLADominic MooreAssists: Radek Dvorak, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
  2. P2 16:02BOSMichael RyderAssists: Andrew Ference, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
  3. P3 4:39BOSMarco SturmGWGAssists: Marc Savard, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 16:30BOSMark Recchi: Holding2 min
  2. P2 7:25FLADominic Moore: Hooking2 min
  3. P2 18:04BOSByron Bitz: Holding2 min
  4. P3 14:32BOSDaniel Paille: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 19:39FLADominic Moore: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Savard
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSFLA
28Shots on goal26
1.7Expected goals1.9
51Shot attempts40
18Faceoffs won28
2Power plays3
6Penalty minutes4
27Hits21
6Blocked shots12
5Giveaways7
4Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 1.9 xGBOS 1.7 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLABOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 22/100 · #947 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.12 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 25% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 54% of the time.

FLA winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).