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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 27, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Buffalo Sabres 5, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Buffalo Sabres

5

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.

STL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BUF191936524
STL18213014335

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:12STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:52BUFJochen HechtAssists: Jason Pominville, Tim Connolly · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:47BUFMike GrierAssists: Tim Kennedy, Chris Butler · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 9:14STLEric BrewerAssists: Keith Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
  5. P2 15:24STLAlexander SteenAssists: Brad Winchester, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–3
  6. P3 3:15BUFMike GrierAssists: Tim Kennedy, Thomas Vanek · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. P3 7:22BUFTim ConnollyPPGWGAssists: Chris Butler, Jason Pominville · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:44BUFTim ConnollySHAssists: Mike Grier, Tyler Myers · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 0:37STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 0:37STLB.J. Crombeen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 0:37BUFPatrick Kaleta: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 0:37BUFCraig Rivet: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:09STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Cross checking2 min
  6. P1 16:23BUFPatrick Kaleta: Interference2 min
  7. P1 18:34BUFPatrick Kaleta: Elbowing2 min
  8. P2 0:56STLBarret Jackman: Boarding2 min
  9. P2 2:21STLT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 4:47BUFAdam Mair: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 6:32STLErik Johnson: Holding2 min · PPG
  12. P3 11:08BUFSteve Montador: Interference2 min
  13. P3 15:35BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against McClement
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFSTL
24Shots on goal35
1.7Expected goals3.3
37Shot attempts69
25Faceoffs won42
4Power plays5
17Penalty minutes15
14Hits14
17Blocked shots7
3Giveaways9
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 3.3 xGBUF 1.7 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 84/100 · #168 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.07 · 8 goals in reachComeback index 22% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 76% of the time.

STL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).