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Ice Lab

Sun, Dec 27, 2009·United Center, Chicago

Nashville Predators 4, Chicago Blackhawks 5

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

Chicago Blackhawks

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH161628420
CHI1609414529

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:35NSHMarcel GocAssists: Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–0
  2. P1 6:55CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 0:47NSHMartin EratAssists: Steve Sullivan · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
  4. P3 6:40CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Andrew Ladd, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
  5. P3 12:12CHIJohn MaddenAssists: Bryan Bickell · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:33CHIBrian CampbellPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 15:38NSHDan HamhuisAssists: Jason Arnott, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
  8. P3 16:35NSHCody FransonUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG4–4
  9. P3 19:16CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 4:40NSHMartin Erat: Interference2 min
  2. P1 11:16NSHWade Belak: Charging2 min
  3. P1 17:04CHIBrent Sopel: Slashing2 min
  4. P2 13:20CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min
  5. P3 4:23NSHPatric Hornqvist: Holding2 min
  6. P3 9:38NSHSteve Sullivan: High sticking2 min
  7. P3 13:15NSHDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min · PPG
  8. P3 0:00NSHJason Arnott: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 0:00CHITroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 0:00CHIBrent Seabrook: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CHI
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackCHI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Legwand won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHCHI
20Shots on goal29
2.4Expected goals2.3
33Shot attempts52
22Faceoffs won21
2Power plays5
12Penalty minutes8
20Hits14
11Blocked shots6
0Giveaways5
6Takeaways9

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CHI 2.3 xGNSH 2.4 xG
00.511.522.5P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CHINSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #13 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.68 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 23% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50CHI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.

CHI winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).