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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Atlanta Thrashers 2, New Jersey Devils 3

Away

Atlanta Thrashers

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsATL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
ATL190819226
NJD2130716326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:43ATLIlya KovalchukAssists: Marty Reasoner, Toby Enstrom · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:46NJDZach PariseAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:34NJDColin WhiteAssists: Travis Zajac, Niclas Bergfors · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P3 0:59NJDZach ParisePPGWGAssists: Patrik Elias, Jamie Langenbrunner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
  5. P3 7:28ATLMarty ReasonerAssists: Pavel Kubina · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 1:57NJDAndrew Peters: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 1:57NJDAndrew Peters: Game misconduct10 min
  3. P1 1:57ATLEric Boulton: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 13:45NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
  5. P1 13:45ATLChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 7:00NJDBryce Salvador: Hooking2 min
  7. P2 14:06ATLEric Boulton: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 19:47ATLBoris Valabik: Holding the stick2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

ATL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← ATL attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against White
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

ATLNJD
26Shots on goal26
1.5Expected goals1.9
37Shot attempts33
22Faceoffs won27
1Power plays2
14Penalty minutes22
20Hits15
2Blocked shots9
7Giveaways9
0Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 1.9 xGATL 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDATL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 34/100 · #816 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.15 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 39% (winner's lowest chance)
ATL 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 61% of the time.

NJD winsATL wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − ATL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).