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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·Verizon Center, Washington

Carolina Hurricanes 6, Washington Capitals 3

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

6

Final

Home

Washington Capitals

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CAR3101927626
WSH04215112331

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:44CARTuomo RuutuPPAssists: Eric Staal, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–0
  2. P1 10:14CAREric StaalAssists: Matt Cullen, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P1 14:30CARJussi JokinenAssists: Matt Cullen, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
  4. P2 1:14WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
  5. P2 3:32CARBrandon SutterGWGAssists: Tuomo Ruutu · Wrist, 0.50 xG4–1
  6. P2 12:56WSHEric FehrAssists: Brooks Laich · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
  7. P3 1:22WSHBrooks LaichPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
  8. P3 10:00CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Eric Staal, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
  9. P3 18:28CAREric StaalENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:47WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 4:47WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 5:48WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 19:27CAREric Staal: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 6:27CARSergei Samsonov: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 8:42CAREric Staal: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 19:18CARAaron Ward: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P3 0:31CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min · PPG
  9. P3 7:53WSHBrendan Morrison: Slashing2 min
  10. P3 11:56WSHBrooks Laich: Diving2 min
  11. P3 11:56CARBrett Carson: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
43% to win57% to win
← CAR attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Steckel won the faceoff against Cullen
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARWSH
26Shots on goal31
4.9Expected goals2.5
45Shot attempts71
33Faceoffs won25
4Power plays5
12Penalty minutes10
18Hits14
24Blocked shots14
5Giveaways11
13Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 2.5 xGCAR 4.9 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #197 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.36 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.

WSH winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).