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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa

Montréal Canadiens 2, Ottawa Senators 4

Away

Montréal Canadiens

2

Final

Home

Ottawa Senators

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MTL21308010231
OTT1111928428

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:59MTLMichael CammalleriAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
  2. P1 9:50MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Brian Gionta, Scott Gomez · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
  3. P1 12:48OTTPeter ReginAssists: Chris Neil, Chris Campoli · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
  4. P2 15:33OTTRyan ShannonPPAssists: Peter Regin · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:15OTTChris NeilGWGAssists: Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.42 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:14OTTChris CampoliENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 19:00MTLAndrei Markov: Interference2 min
  2. P2 9:01MTLJaroslav Spacek: High sticking2 min
  3. P2 15:28MTLJaroslav Spacek: Tripping2 min · PPG
  4. P2 17:46MTLBrian Gionta: Tripping2 min
  5. P3 1:39MTLAndrei Markov: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MTL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0OTT
43% to win57% to win
← MTL attackOTT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Metropolit
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MTLOTT
31Shots on goal28
3.0Expected goals3.0
54Shot attempts50
27Faceoffs won40
0Power plays5
10Penalty minutes0
27Hits27
10Blocked shots13
11Giveaways7
9Takeaways11

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

OTT 3.0 xGMTL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

OTTMTL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 65/100 · #416 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.47 · 6 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
MTL 100%5050%50OTT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 50% of the time.

OTT winsMTL wins

Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).