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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa

Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2

Away

Boston Bruins

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
BOS01006116132
TBL1712408239

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 18:59TBLAlex TanguayAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Kurtis Foster · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
  2. P2 19:48TBLMartin St. LouisPPGWGAssists: Kurtis Foster, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.65 xG0–2
  3. P3 12:30BOSMarco SturmAssists: Marc Savard, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
  1. P1 6:37TBLRyan Malone: Boarding2 min
  2. P2 2:41BOSByron Bitz: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 2:41TBLZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 10:07BOSDavid Krejci: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 19:23BOSVladimir Sobotka: Boarding2 min · PPG
  6. P2 19:48BOSMark Recchi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  7. P3 6:32BOSAndrew Ference: Boarding2 min
  8. P3 8:00TBLSteve Downie: Hooking2 min
  9. P3 8:24TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 8:24BOSMarc Savard: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 13:30BOSBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 18:33TBLRyan Malone: Holding2 min
  13. P3 19:26BOSMark Recchi: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
43% to win57% to win
← BOS attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Bergeron
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSTBL
32Shots on goal39
1.7Expected goals3.4
55Shot attempts55
37Faceoffs won26
3Power plays5
19Penalty minutes13
13Hits17
6Blocked shots13
4Giveaways6
4Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 3.4 xGBOS 1.7 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 12/100 · #1073 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.84 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.

TBL winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).