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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·Rexall Place, Edmonton

Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 1

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Edmonton Oilers

1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CGY151929423
EDM11601504135

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:02EDMRyan PotulnyAssists: Jason Strudwick, Ryan Stone · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 18:58CGYRene BourqueAssists: Nigel Dawes, Olli Jokinen · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:22CGYRene BourqueGWGAssists: Olli Jokinen, Dustin Boyd · Backhand, 0.42 xG2–1
  4. P3 5:37CGYRene BourqueSHAssists: Daymond Langkow · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–1
  5. P3 7:06CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Craig Conroy · Snap, 0.04 xG4–1
Penalties (19)
  1. P1 2:03EDMAndrew Cogliano: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:03CGYDustin Boyd: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 2:21CGYFredrik Sjostrom: Holding2 min
  4. P1 8:15CGYJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
  5. P1 16:45EDMAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 2:56CGYDustin Boyd: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 8:54EDMJean-Francois Jacques: Boarding2 min
  8. P2 15:18EDMRyan Stone: Roughing2 min
  9. P3 4:56CGYOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
  10. P3 9:42CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
  11. P3 14:55EDMLadislav Smid: Fighting5 min
  12. P3 14:55CGYJarome Iginla: Fighting5 min
  13. P3 15:13EDMSteve Staios: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 15:13CGYRobyn Regehr: Fighting5 min
  15. P3 15:53EDMShawn Horcoff: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 18:05EDMPatrick O'Sullivan: Cross checking2 min
  17. P3 19:09EDMRyan Stone: Fighting5 min
  18. P3 19:09CGYAaron Johnson: Fighting5 min
  19. P3 19:09EDMRyan Stone: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CGY00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0EDM
43% to win57% to win
← CGY attackEDM attack →
  1. P1 20:00Iginla won the faceoff against Horcoff
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CGYEDM
23Shots on goal35
2.4Expected goals3.8
64Shot attempts63
28Faceoffs won38
5Power plays5
30Penalty minutes40
26Hits18
11Blocked shots23
16Giveaways19
4Takeaways4

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

EDM 3.8 xGCGY 2.4 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

EDMCGY

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.

Excitement 33/100 · #831 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 27% (winner's lowest chance)
CGY 100%5050%50EDM 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.

EDM winsCGY wins

Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).