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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles

Minnesota Wild 4, Los Angeles Kings 3

Away

Minnesota Wild

4

Final

Home

Los Angeles Kings

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

LAK winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN0103914423
LAK01311029332

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 4:23MINMartin HavlatAssists: Eric Belanger · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P2 11:36LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Brad Richardson, Scott Parse · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:00MINKim JohnssonPPAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P2 18:58MINEric BelangerAssists: Owen Nolan, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
  5. P3 2:28LAKJack JohnsonPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Michal Handzus · Slap, 0.02 xG3–2
  6. P3 17:23LAKScott ParseAssists: Brad Richardson, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
  7. P3 17:35MINEric BelangerGWGAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Marek Zidlicky · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
  1. P1 7:00LAKRyan Smyth: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 13:47LAKRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P3 0:45MINNick Schultz: Interference2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0LAK
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackLAK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Kopitar
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINLAK
23Shots on goal32
1.6Expected goals2.9
34Shot attempts62
26Faceoffs won22
2Power plays1
2Penalty minutes4
29Hits36
13Blocked shots3
9Giveaways12
6Takeaways6

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

LAK 2.9 xGMIN 1.6 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

LAKMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #118 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.20 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 43% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50LAK 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +42 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 73% of the time.

LAK winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).