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Ice Lab

Mon, Dec 28, 2009·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose

Phoenix Coyotes 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)

Away

Phoenix Coyotes

2

Final

Shootout

Home

San Jose Sharks

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.

SJS winsPHX wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
PHX0921406040233
SJS11018019011338

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:54SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Frazer McLaren, Rob Blake · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–1
  2. P2 5:17SJSJoe PavelskiSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–2
  3. P2 9:20PHXPetr PruchaAssists: Ed Jovanovski, Martin Hanzal · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:22PHXShane DoanAssists: Scottie Upshall · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2

Shootout

  1. 1. PHX Peter Mueller stopped
  2. 2. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
  3. 3. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
  4. 4. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
  5. 5. PHX Robert Lang stopped
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 19:08SJSDevin Setoguchi: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 4:13SJSTorrey Mitchell: Tripping2 min
  3. P2 12:32PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:32SJSScott Nichol: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P2 16:04PHXScottie Upshall: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  6. P2 19:27PHXMartin Hanzal: Elbowing2 min
  7. P3 1:03PHXEd Jovanovski: Roughing2 min
  8. OT 1:43SJSDevin Setoguchi: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PHX00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0SJS
43% to win57% to win
← PHX attackSJS attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Lombardi
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PHXSJS
33Shots on goal38
3.0Expected goals6.5
65Shot attempts74
25Faceoffs won33
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
24Hits26
17Blocked shots19
3Giveaways11
1Takeaways7

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

SJS 6.5 xGPHX 3.0 xG
0246P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

SJSPHX

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.

Excitement 62/100 · #469 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 4 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
PHX 100%5050%50SJS 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +23 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 90% of the time.

SJS winsPHX wins

Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).