Tue, Dec 29, 2009·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 119 | 09 | 338 |
| BUF | 04 | 215 | 25 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08PITJordan StaalAssists: Tyler Kennedy · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 18:31PITBill GuerinAssists: Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P2 1:28PITChris KunitzAssists: Sidney Crosby, Pascal Dupuis · Slap, 0.04 xG3–0
- P2 12:46BUFDrew StaffordUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
- P2 14:55BUFDrew StaffordAssists: Clarke MacArthur, Tim Kennedy · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 7:28BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Drew Stafford, Clarke MacArthur · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 10:55BUFJason PominvillePPGWGAssists: Tim Connolly, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:02PITEric Godard: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:52BUFJochen Hecht: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:27PITEric Godard: Holding2 min
- P2 16:14PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:05PITCraig Adams: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:15BUFSteve Montador: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:34PITJordan Staal: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34BUFPaul Gaustad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).