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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 29, 2009·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale

Columbus Blue Jackets 1, New York Islanders 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.

NYI winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CBJ014014112020142
NYI170805051225

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:04NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Kyle Okposo, Andy Sutton · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
  2. P3 9:47CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Rick Nash, Fedor Tyutin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. NYI Jeff Tambellini stopped
  2. 2. CBJ Kristian Huselius stopped
  3. 3. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
  4. 4. CBJ Rick Nash stopped
  5. 5. NYI Rob Schremp scored
  6. 6. CBJ Fedor Tyutin stopped
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 16:29NYIAndy Sutton: Interference2 min
  2. P2 4:11NYIRichard Park: Holding the stick2 min
  3. P3 1:15CBJR.J. Umberger: Tripping2 min
  4. P3 2:28CBJMathieu Roy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  5. P3 13:52CBJMathieu Roy: Roughing2 min
  6. P3 15:21NYIRob Schremp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  7. P3 18:18CBJFreddy Modin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYI
43% to win57% to win
← CBJ attackNYI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Pahlsson won the faceoff against Park
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJNYI
42Shots on goal25
4.3Expected goals3.4
79Shot attempts56
26Faceoffs won23
3Power plays4
8Penalty minutes6
24Hits34
16Blocked shots28
11Giveaways15
19Takeaways31

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYI 3.4 xGCBJ 4.3 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYICBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #547 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.69 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 44% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50NYI 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +30 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 65% of the time.

NYI winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).