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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 29, 2009·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Nashville Predators 4, St. Louis Blues 3

Away

Nashville Predators

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
NSH21511114430
STL1609212327

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:29STLCarlo ColaiacovoAssists: Andy McDonald, Roman Polak · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 5:04NSHMarcel GocAssists: J-P Dumont, Ryan Suter · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
  3. P1 12:43NSHPatric HornqvistAssists: Martin Erat, Shea Weber · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
  4. P2 4:09NSHJoel WardPPAssists: Shea Weber, David Legwand · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
  5. P3 5:16NSHJ-P DumontGWGAssists: Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
  6. P3 9:08STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG4–2
  7. P3 12:30STLAndy McDonaldPPAssists: Keith Tkachuk, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 10:38STLRoman Polak: Slashing2 min
  2. P2 1:21STLT.J. Oshie: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 2:00STLBarret Jackman: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
  4. P2 3:06STLMike Weaver: Delaying game2 min
  5. P2 11:07NSHSteve Sullivan: Slashing2 min
  6. P2 15:25STLKeith Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
  7. P2 19:20NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 3:04NSHFrancis Bouillon: Holding2 min
  9. P3 10:03STLDavid Backes: Holding2 min
  10. P3 10:41NSHSteve Sullivan: Interference2 min · PPG
  11. P3 13:50STLKeith Tkachuk: Interference2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

NSH00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
43% to win57% to win
← NSH attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Legwand
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

NSHSTL
30Shots on goal27
2.9Expected goals2.3
60Shot attempts50
26Faceoffs won38
8Power plays4
8Penalty minutes16
16Hits21
12Blocked shots15
5Giveaways9
5Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.3 xGNSH 2.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLNSH

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.

Excitement 70/100 · #342 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.34 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 29% (winner's lowest chance)
NSH 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +18 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.

STL winsNSH wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − NSH), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).