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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 29, 2009·American Airlines Center, Dallas

Chicago Blackhawks 4, Dallas Stars 5

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

4

Final

Home

Dallas Stars

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.

DAL winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI32115011437
DAL282917524

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:10CHITroy BrouwerPPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.56 xG1–0
  2. P1 5:14DALMike ModanoPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:37DALMike RibeiroAssists: Steve Ott, Stephane Robidas · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P1 16:50CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
  5. P1 17:49CHIColin FraserAssists: Kris Versteeg, Ben Eager · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
  6. P2 0:57DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Brad Richards · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
  7. P2 1:32DALSteve OttAssists: Mike Ribeiro, James Neal · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
  8. P2 19:56CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
  9. P3 4:07DALSteve OttPPGWGAssists: Trevor Daley, Marty Turco · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
  1. P1 1:13DALBrad Richards: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 4:32CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P1 7:56DALBrenden Morrow: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 10:58CHITomas Kopecky: Holding the stick2 min
  5. P1 15:56DALMarty Turco: Delaying game2 min · PPG
  6. P2 4:30DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min
  7. P2 5:35CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min
  8. P3 2:31CHICam Barker: High sticking2 min · PPG
  9. P3 5:00CHITomas Kopecky: Boarding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0DAL
43% to win57% to win
← CHI attackDAL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Sharp won the faceoff against Wandell
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIDAL
37Shots on goal24
4.4Expected goals1.9
73Shot attempts41
29Faceoffs won25
4Power plays5
10Penalty minutes8
16Hits38
10Blocked shots19
10Giveaways9
4Takeaways3

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

DAL 1.9 xGCHI 4.4 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

DALCHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 91/100 · #85 of 1230 this seasonSwing 2.23 · 9 goals in reachComeback index 36% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50DAL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 87% of the time.

DAL winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).