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Ice Lab

Tue, Dec 29, 2009·Honda Center, Anaheim

Minnesota Wild 2, Anaheim Ducks 4

Away

Minnesota Wild

2

Final

Home

Anaheim Ducks

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.

ANA winsMIN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
MIN18012111231
ANA21711213432

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 7:08ANABobby RyanUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 15:41MINAntti MiettinenAssists: Andrew Brunette, Mikko Koivu · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–1
  3. P1 16:16ANADan SextonAssists: Bobby Ryan, James Wisniewski · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:44ANABobby RyanPPGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Scott Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
  5. P3 13:07MINKim JohnssonPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Martin Havlat · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:50ANATodd MarchantENAssists: James Wisniewski, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
  1. P2 1:03ANANick Boynton: Tripping2 min
  2. P2 11:53MINDerek Boogaard: Fighting5 min
  3. P2 11:53ANANick Boynton: Fighting5 min
  4. P2 11:53MINDerek Boogaard: Misconduct10 min
  5. P2 12:26MINJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
  6. P2 12:26ANATroy Bodie: Misconduct10 min
  7. P2 12:26MINJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  8. P2 12:26ANATroy Bodie: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P2 16:41MINEric Belanger: Slashing2 min
  10. P2 17:27MINKyle Brodziak: Holding2 min · PPG
  11. P3 9:36MINAntti Miettinen: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 12:06ANAMatt Beleskey: High sticking2 min · PPG
  13. P3 16:51ANAScott Niedermayer: Hooking2 min
  14. P3 19:12ANANick Boynton: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

MIN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ANA
43% to win57% to win
← MIN attackANA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Ebbett
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

MINANA
31Shots on goal32
2.1Expected goals2.8
53Shot attempts50
29Faceoffs won26
4Power plays3
33Penalty minutes25
15Hits33
10Blocked shots9
9Giveaways6
3Takeaways5

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ANA 2.8 xGMIN 2.1 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ANAMIN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #691 of 1230 this seasonSwing 1.12 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 55% (winner's lowest chance)
MIN 100%5050%50ANA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +17 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 63% of the time.

ANA winsMIN wins

Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).