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Ice Lab

Wed, Dec 30, 2009·Prudential Center, Newark

Pittsburgh Penguins 0, New Jersey Devils 2

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

0

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
PIT0901409032
NJD112011110233

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:48NJDNiclas BergforsGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
  2. P3 19:48NJDJamie LangenbrunnerENAssists: Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.72 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
  1. P1 11:30PITMax Talbot: Elbowing2 min
  2. P2 11:43PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 11:43NJDBrian Rolston: Roughing2 min
  4. P3 3:17PITMatt Cooke: Slashing2 min
  5. P3 7:42PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
  6. P3 9:13PITSidney Crosby: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P3 18:34NJDTravis Zajac: Holding2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
43% to win57% to win
← PIT attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Zajac
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITNJD
32Shots on goal33
2.1Expected goals2.6
48Shot attempts58
22Faceoffs won28
1Power plays4
10Penalty minutes4
22Hits26
17Blocked shots12
6Giveaways10
4Takeaways8

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 2.6 xGPIT 2.1 xG
-0.500.511.522.53P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 0/100 · #1225 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.54 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 56% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 59% of the time.

NJD winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).